Why Nick Punto Needs to Start

Written by Andrew Kneeland

Wednesday, 14 October 2009 15:05

Following the infamous Game 3 baserunning error, Nick Punto may be one of the most hated men in Minnesota. He ignored the (possibly late) stop signal from third-base coach Scott Ullger in favor of the roaring crowd. Punto probably ended up costing the Twins a run in that fateful Game 3, which ended up being the last of 2009, and the last in Metrodome history.

But that one mistake cannot replace a surprisingly solid season from the veteran utility infielder.

The following is a statement that may shock you, so please be warned: Punto leads the team in pitches taken per plate appearance with 4.2. Yes, more than Denard Span. Yes, more than even Joe Mauer. 13.9 percent of Punto's 440 plate appearances this past season resulted in walks. That percentage is higher than Mauer's 12.5 percent, and, again, leads the team.

Both his 4.20 pitches per plate appearance and 13.9 walk percentage are well above the league average.

While Punto swings at more first-pitches than Mauer does, Punto swings at fewer pitches outside of the zone than his MVP-caliber teammate. (This could be accounted for by Mauer's sheer ability to hit poor pitches better than Punto, but it still an interesting stat.) It seems ridiculous, but one could legitimately argue that Punto is the most patient hitter in Minnesota.

Putting aside the fateful miscue in Game 3, Punto remains one of the most effective base-runners in the league and quite reliable for online sports betting. In Baseball Prospectus' Eqivalent Baserunning Runs (EqBRR), Punto is ranked as the fourteenth best base-runner in the major-leagues, and by far the best on the Twins. EqBRR takes into account virtually all aspects of baserunning, including actual stolen bases, advancement on fly balls, advancement on ground balls, and other such elements.

Punto is obviously a light-hitter, and that is what alienates him to many fans, but he has his value. While he won't be leading any team in doubles or home runs, Punto is an above-average number nine hitter. His Wins Above Replacement this year was 1.2, and he has averaged just under 1.5 per full season. 1.5 WAR is certainly acceptable for the last hitter in your batting lineup.

Finally, on a point that could probably stand alone, Punto's fielding makes him entirely worth a full-time position in the lineup. His combined UZR this year was 5.1 -- not Franklin Gutierrez by any stretch, but essential for the ground-ball pitchers in Minnesota's rotation.

Perhaps the most compelling argument on Punto's worthiness to be a regular in the 2010 Minnesota infield, though, is the lack of other options. Brendan Harris is up for arbitration, Alexi Casilla is out of options, and Orlando Cabrera's contract is up. Punto's salary is the only one guaranteed, so if you put him on the bench or attempt to trade him you will be forced to fill second base, third base, and shortstop this winter.

Hardly a position you would want the Twins in, right?

Whichever middle infield position the Twins choose to address this winter—and I'll dive deeper into that as the season wears on—Nick Punto needs to start at one of them.

Comments (5) Add Comment

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written by Bill@TDS, October 14, 2009

Shoot...I was going to write almost this exact same post for tomorrow. Well put.

Whoops...
written by andrewkneeland, October 14, 2009

Sorry, Bill. I'm sure you could write it much better than me, though, so please go for it!

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written by Bill@TDS, October 14, 2009

Haha...no worries. And I don't think I could top this.
I used to be one of Punto's biggest detractors, and then I realized that aside from 2007, when he was playing hurt (and out of position), he's been a very solid starter. Hard to blame anybody for wanting to be rid of him right about now, but he's by far the least of the left-three-quarters-of-the-infield's problems.

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written by andrewkneeland, October 14, 2009

"...he's by far the least of the left-three-quarters-of-the-infield's problems."

Exactly.

Why Nick Punto Needs to Assume a Backup Role
written by ochocinco, January 29, 2010

He can't hit and Twins can't afford to have him kill every rally they start.

Punto's salary is the only one guaranteed, so if you put him on the bench or attempt to trade him you will be forced to fill second base, third base, and shortstop this winter.

Obviously, the situation has changed since the end of last season: now benching him would only necessitate finding a 2b of which there are several FAs that should be able to be signed for < Punto's 4 Mil. Punto's glove can play well enough 3rd SS 2nd and even OF in a pinch which means he can be a great asset to the team. However, Just because he is getting paid, doesn't mean they need start him to maximize his value to the team. He could use the superior base running skills you mentioned as a pinch runner for Thome or put in his glove as a defensive replacement for Harris.

Punto leads the team in pitches taken per plate appearance with 4.2. Yes, more than Denard Span. Yes, more than even Joe Mauer. 13.9 percent of Punto's 440 plate appearances this past season resulted in walks. That percentage is higher than Mauer's 12.5 percent, and, again, leads the team.

I understand working pitch counts is important and, generally, the more pitches the opposing pitcher throws the better off your team's chances are to wear him out, have a big inning, and/or drive him from the game. Many of the league's stars have high pitches/plate appearance, but seeing more P/PA does not automatically make a hitter worthy of starting. Among those with P/PA > 4.00 in '09 are the likes of Punto, Gabe Gross, Jose Bautista, and Jack Haannahan--hardly close to anyone's definition of stars--In fact, of those only Punto even starts. More important than number of pitches seen is what happens with those pitches. Punto is a horrible hitter; while patience at the plate may help make him better, he is still horrible.

His 13.9% walk rate in '09 is in anomaly. His career rate of 9.9, while slightly above average, is not terribly impressive for someone who has absolutely no power and hits well below league average.

Punto's a solid glove but he is just too detrimental offensively to have him starting everyday even at 2nd base.