2009 stats: Did not play Last year’s rank: Not ranked Acquired: 1st round selection of the Minnesota Twins in the 2009 draft
Athletic abilities aside, Kyle Gibson has a reputation for being one of the nicest, most humble guys on any team. His work ethic and knowledge of the game are unrivaled.
On the pitching mound, though, Gibson is perhaps more impressive. Standing at 6'6'' and weighing 208 lbs, Gibson is extremely projectable and could very easily improve on his three above-average offerings. His best pitch – given a plus-plus grade by many scouts solely because of his meticulous command – is his fastball, which sits in the low 90s. Gibson also boasts a plus-plus slider and an above-average changeup.
Besides the control he holds over his pitches, Gibson's mechanics and delivery are nearly flawless. Assuming he is 100 percent healthy, the 22-year-old could fly through the Twins' minor league system.
Of course, health is the largest question mark for the Twins. Gibson slid to the lower half of the first round because of a stress fracture in his forearm, which appears to be completely healed. While the positive reports from doctors are good to hear, Twins fans would like for Gibson to validate his doctors by dominating on the field. If Gibson can accomplish that, there's no telling how high he could go.
Another one of Gibson's strengths is his stamina. His fastball hits the 93 mph mark in both the second and ninth innings, if need be. During his senior year at Missouri, Gibson consistently threw over 100 pitches an outing.
One of the aspects of his game that needs work is holding runners. Several scouts have claimed that Gibson has a slow throw to first base, and could potentially be distracted by runners on the corners. With some age-old drills from Fort Myers' pitching coach Steve Mintz, though, these potential problems could be adverted.
While at worst he would be an effective 3rd or 4th starting pitcher, most scouts consider Gibson capable of being considered a major-league ace.
Ideal scenario: Gibson will start the 2010 season in Fort Myers, but will most likely advance to Double-A New Britain before too long. He could conceivably reach Triple-A Rochester before the season ends. Gibson will probably start 2011 in Rochester, and could be called up soon thereafter.
Path to the majors: Assuming the Twins don't sign a young pitcher to a six-year deal in the next two years, there will be plenty of room in the rotation for Gibson when he is deemed ready.
I don't claim to know my way around a spreadsheet better than most, but I do enjoy numbers and appreciate their value. Numbers can be great as both evaluators and predictors of performance. With that in mind, I wanted to take some time to lay out what the current roster of the 2010 Twins looks like, and predict how many wins we can expect next season.
Now, I realize that the offseason isn't over. Another move could easily impact the projections you see below, either for better or worse. Personally, though, I very seriously doubt the Twins make a major move between now and the beginning of the season -- aside from the locking up Mr. Mauer, of course.
Anyway, here are the projected number of wins the Twins will enjoy for the 2010 season, based on Chone's projections and Jeff's wonderful wOBA to WAR conversion spreadsheet. Also worth mentioning is that these totals are above replacement, which means that anything seen below will need to be added to the projected wins a Quadruple-A team would have over the course of a season, but I'll cover that later.
Also, Chone's projections are known for being conservative, but not necessarily inaccurate. These projections do not factor in defense. For the sake of clarity (and my sanity) I'll consider the 2010 Twins to be a league-average defensive team for this example. Here are the batters, followed by the pitchers.
Position - Name - Projected wOBA - '10 WAR
C - Joe Mauer - 0.396 - 7.7 1B - Justin Morneau - 0.365 - 3.3 2B - Nick Punto - 0.304 - 1.0 SS - JJ Hardy - 0.314 - 2.1 3B - Danny Valencia - 0.295 - 0.4 LF - Delmon Young - 0.330 - 1.6 CF - Denard Span - 0.347 - 3.6 RF - Michael Cuddyer - 0.348 - 2.7 DH - Jason Kubel - 0.351 - 1.4
Total offensive WAR = 23.8
Position - Name - Projected RAR - '10 WAR
SP - Scott Baker - 36 - 3.6 SP - Kevin Slowey - 21 - 2.1 SP - Nick Blackburn - 20 - 2.0 SP - Carl Pavano - 15 - 1.5 SP - Brian Duensing - 14 - 1.4 RP - Jesse Crain - 4 - 0.4 RP - Matt Guerrier - 3 - 0.3 RP - Bobby Keppel - 0 - 0 RP - Jon Rauch - 5 - 0.5 RP - Jose Mijares - 2 - 0.2 RP - Pat Neshek* - 10 - 1.0 RP - Joe Nathan - 15 - 1.5
Total pitching WAR = 14.5
(* Chone doesn't have a projection for Neshek, so I came up with the completely arbitrary number of 10 runs above replacement.)
This calculates to a grand total of 38.3 wins above replacement for the 2010 season. Although debatable, a replacement-level team is generally regarded among the statistical community to be capable of winning 50 games, this puts the projected win total of the 2010 Minnesota Twins at 88, one more than what it was last season.
With this in mind, should the Twins spring for a couple of expensive three-WAR players to push their projected win total to 93? As Nate Silver finds in an essay in the book "Baseball Between the Numbers," a win is much for valuable to a team that is projected to win between 84 and 94 games. Just as an example, if the Twins signed a five-WAR free agent their chances of reaching the postseason would increase by more than 50 percent, based on data from '96-'05. This 50 percent increase would clearly be significant, and shows just how important it is to get over the 90-win plateau.
If the Twins splurge on a player like Adrian Beltre (projected 2.8 WAR) or Orlando Hudson (projected 2.5 WAR), their chances of reaching the postseason would dramatically increase.
Knowing Bill Smith and the Twins, though, I expect no more moves to be made this offseason, and the 2010 AL Central will most likley come down to the wire once again.
(Note - I apologize for the lack of posting here lately. A lot has come up lately on the home front, and I've been swamped. I have a few free minutes today, though, so I want to divert you away from the inactivity here, and direct you attention towards the inactive stance the Twins have taken this winter on the free agent market.)
The Minnesota Twins are renowned for their seemingly apathetic stance towards the free agent market. Instead of throwing around the money for the top free agents like most other teams, the Twins seem content to sit on their hands and watch other teams spend money. This is infuriating for many fans, and the phrase "not committed to winning" usually starts to be thrown around this time of year.
Is this fair? Would awarding a player like Placido Polanco with $6 million a year be a sound economic decision? More precisely, would the free agent in question bring in enough money to offset his price tag?
The best way to solve this problem would be to reduce both sides of the equation to wins. The performance side will be simple because of the WAR (Wins Above Replacement) statistic. BaseballProjecion has a database of historical WAR for just about every player to every wear a major league uniform, and their numbers will be used.
Nate Silver, a Baseball Prospectus author in the book "Baseball Between the Numbers," goes through a team's revenues and estimates how much a team makes (over both the long- and short-terms) from winning a single game. I won't give away all of his methadology -- all baseball fans need to read the book anyway -- but I'll provide an overview of his process. Silver examines the seven different ways a team can make (or lose, as is the case with revenue sharing) revenue: ticket sales, concession revenue, club seat and luxury box sales, postseason revenue, merchandise sales, local media broadcast sales, revenue sharing. When added together, a team makes a grand total of $1,196,000 per regular season win.
This figure can be subtracted from a player's contract to evaluate whether or not the player is bringing in more money than he is being paid. Even though they span across two front offices, let's take a look at the Twins' performance over the past few years and attempt to find out whether or not they are over-paying for their free agents.
As I mentioned yesterday, there is perhaps no more controversial player in the Twins' organization than Wilson Ramos. His future status with the club has been highly scrutinized and the "should-he-stay/should-he-go" debate has come to an aiguille these past weeks, as prospect rankings are pouring out.
Although I rank him as the sixth best prospect in the Minnesota organization, Ramos is one of the best catching prospects in the league. His bat alone, when fully developed, could sustain him in the major leagues as a designated hitter. Coupling that with his above-average defense from behind the plate, and Wilson Ramos is certainly a prospect to keep your eyes on this next year.
That said, there is a certain Joe Mauer who will hopefully be squatting behind the home plate in Target Field for the next decade or two*. Ramos' path to the majors as a catcher is certainly blocked, which raises the question Twins' fans have regarding Ramos: Should he stay with the organization, or be used as a valuable trade chip?
(*And the rest of this piece will assume that Mauer is re-signed to a long-term deal.)
The return on any trade involving Ramos would certainly be high. Trading Ramos and another mid-level prospect for a solid, established starting pitcher wouldn't be the worst idea, but would a move like that come back to bite us in five years? Would receiving three or four years' worth of a starting pitcher justify moving a potential perrenial All-Star off the roster?
Many don't think so.
Perhaps the best solution for the Twins would be to utilize Ramos as a designated hitter for the majority of the season, and having him replace Mauer defensively when need be. This could usher in Mauer's seemingly inevitable (albeit highly debatable) move to either third base or the outfield, as he would have a more-than-capable catcher waiting in the wings.
Of course, if Minnesota could land a pitcher like Josh Johnson in a trade involving Ramos, the Twins' brass will be posed a rather difficult question. With Johnson on the roster, the Twins would have more than a fair chance at winning at least one postseason series. Ramos is gaining some league-wide notoriety from his impressive .361/.421/.585 batting line so far in the Venezuelan Winter League. Some feel his value has peaked as a prospect and he should be traded now, while his value is high.
Others, though, like myself, are holding out on the chance that strong Ramos will develop a power game that should net him 20-25 home runs per season in the big leagues. If the Twins hold onto Ramos, we will reap the rewards in a few short seasons.
Where do you stand? Should Ramos be traded now, later, or never?
2009 stats: .316/.316/.947, 19 PA, 3 HR, 0/0 K/BB at GCL (Rook); .317/.341/.454, 214 PA, 4 HR, 23/6 K/BB at New Britain (AA) Last year’s rank: 11 Acquired: Un-drafted acquisition from Venezuela in July 2004
Wilson Ramos could be the most talked-about prospect in the Twins' organization. With Joe Mauer likely to be re-signed, the state of Minnesota isn't in desperate need of an elite catching prospect, yet Ramos could be too good to pass up.
Defensively, Ramos is perhaps the best catcher in the minor leagues. This defensive fame has been acquired, though, solely from his arm strength and ability to throw out runners. Various scouting reports claim that he is an average receiver and blocker behind the plate. It is also said that he needs to improve his ability to call games, which could be a result of his broken English.
With a bat in his hands, Ramos is a natural hitter. Although he suffered a broken hand and an injured hamstring this past season while with the the Rock Cats, Ramos hit a very impressive line of .317/.341/.454. This production would be more than enough to keep him in the big leagues as a catcher.
Ramos has above-average strength, but he has yet to harness this ability and utilize it in game situations. Some scouting reports claim that he has the potential to hit 20-25 home runs per season when his power is fully developed.
Patience at the plate is another thing Ramos will need to work on before hitting the major leagues. Ramos drew just six walks in the 54 games he played in 2009; a walk rate of just three percent. Although his strikeout rate did decrease to a respectable eleven percent this past year, warning flags do fly for various scouts.
If the power starts to show itself, Ramos will be universally hailed as one of the best prospects in baseball. Until then, though, I'll be happy with an above-average defender who hits for a good average and is capable of effectively leading a pitching staff.
Ideal scenario: Ramos finds his power and becomes less aggressive at the plate. He should start 2010 with New Britain, but could quickly find himself with the Triple-A squad. He could be with the Twins in either 2010 or 2011.
Path to the majors: Ever hear of Joe Mauer? Assuming the Minnesota native is locked up to a long-term contract, Ramos is stuck behind the best catcher in baseball for the foreseeable future. Ramos' bat may be too much to ignore, though, so he could be a regular DH for the Twins in a few years, relieving Mauer behind the plate when necessary. Others claim that Ramos should be considered a trade chip.
(NOTE - Ramos' future is a hot topic these days. Be sure to stick around TwinsTarget, as I'll hopefully have much more on that subject in the near future.)
2009 stats: 1.46 ERA, 61.2 IP, 58/3 K/BB, 1.022 WHIP Last year’s rank: Not ranked Acquired: Un-drafted acquisition from the Dominican Republic in December 2007
Much isn't known about a prospect until he hits the national stage or is on the verge of being called up. Neither of those scenarios apply in Adrian Salcedo's case, and as a result, precious little is known about the teenage right-hander who is tearing through the Gulf Coast League.
The Gulf Coast League is known to be a pitcher's league, so any great numbers must be taken with a grain of salt. Also, the statistical performance of minor leaguers at levels this low usually don't translate well to the major leagues. Statistics aren't usually how 18-year old pitchers are evaluated, anyway, but for Salcedo an exception could be made.
How can you not pay attention when an 18-year old puts up two consecutive seasons with a sub-1.65 ERA and a walk rate lower than three percent? Salcedo absolutely dominated Gulf Coast League batters this past season, and walked just over one percent of the 259 batters he faced.
Some people have claimed that Salcedo and BJ Hermsen have grown relatively close. GCL coach Jake Mauer says that Salcedo is modeling his pitching style after the 2008 draft pick, which, if you've been following this series for a while you've read about Hermsen and know that that can bring nothing but good things for Salcedo.
Scouting reports on Salcedo are limited, but it is known that he has a 90-94 mph fastball that includes some late movement. This sinking fastball, when coupled with a hard slider that sits at around 84 mph, induces many groundballs. Salcedo has given up just two homeruns in his 127 career innings.
Salcedo also has a changeup that he can deliver with deception that has the potential to be a plus pitch.
What the Twins' brass knows for sure, though, is that Salcedo has plus plus command, a plus fastball/slider combination, and the ability to throw strikes. His status as an elite prospect hinges on his outstanding command. Without the acute ability to throw strikes, Salcedo will shrink into the realm of minor league anonymity.
Ideal scenario: Salcedo spends the majority of 2010 with the Beloit Snappers, and steadily advances through the system after that. He could be with the Twins in 2014.
Path to the majors: Assuming he maintains his spectacular command, Salcedo could be a very solid No. 2 starting pitcher. Very few could get in his way, and when Salcedo is deemed ready for the major leagues, the Twins will be as accommodating as possible.
2009 stats: .258/.359/.441, 501 PA, 16 HR, 109/65 K/BB at Ft. Myers (A+) Last year’s rank: Not ranked Acquired: 1st round selection of the Minnesota Twins in the 2006 draft
If Chris Parmelee suddenly becomes an average defensive first-baseman or outfielder, there is no knowing how high he will go. As it currently stands, though, Parmelee struggles to provide his team with adequate defense at either position, and it looks like his best shot at the major leagues will come through the designated hitter position.
Offensively, Parmelee is a great hitter. Belting 45 home runs over the past two and a half seasons, Parmelee has proved himself to be a power hitter, but little else. For the two full seasons under Parmelee’s belt, 40 percent of all hits have gone for extra-bases. Also worth mentioning is that Parmelee put up his .258/.359/.441 this past season in the Florida State League, which is renowned for being pitcher-friendly.
Drafted out of high school, many envied Parmelee’s raw power, and many more are impressed at how fast the young left-hander has been able to use that power in actual game scenarios. This shows a great ability to read pitches, which led to his league-leading walk total this past season. As with all power hitters, though, Parmelee struck out quite often: in 2009, 22 percent of Parmelee’s plate appearances ended in strikeouts.
Despite being among the league leaders in home runs, Florida State League pitchers didn’t feel the need to intentionally walk Parmelee very often. As a matter of fact, they didn’t intentionally walk very many batters at all; revealing the league’s desire to garner experience, not necessarily win games. Parmelee was intentionally walked five times all season, which was the highest total in the league.
There is plenty of optimism for Parmelee, regardless of his lack of a defensive position. His extremely powerful bat may be enough to land him in a major league lineup, but if he continues to work hard and improves his defensive abilities, there is no question that the Twins’ brass will look upon him more favorably.
Ideal scenario: Parmelee saw his batting average shoot up in 2009 to a decent .258, which should earn him a promotion to New Britain, assuming his power numbers remain the same. The lefty slugger could play in Rochester in 2011, and could be the next Jason Kubel in 2012.
Path to the majors: Parmelee is essentially Jason Kubel: a left-handed power hitter who can’t play great defense. Kubel is under contract through the 2010 season, with a club option for 2011. If the Twins stick to that deal, things could work out nicely for Parmelee starting in 2012.
2009 stats: .200/.429/.200, 7 PA, 0 HR, 0/2 K/BB at GCL (Rook); .285/.414/.403, 327 PA, 5 HR, 74/46 K/BB at Ft. Myers (A+) Last year’s rank: 15 Acquired: 2nd round selection of the Minnesota Twins in the 2006 draft
Joe Benson is one of the toughest players to project in this organization. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that he has racked up more than 350 plate appearances just once in his four-year career. Any kind of batting line he puts up, whether good or bad, will immediately be coupled with cries of “Small Sample Size!”
Benson hit .285/.414/.403 this past season with the Miracle, but missed six weeks because of a broken hand. He is an incredibly patient hitter, yet strikes out more than most. His 817 OPS is impressive and well above average, but was also higher than his career average. Whether he can repeat the impressive performance on the field has yet to be seen.
At 21 years of age, Benson wasn’t necessarily young for the level he played at in 2009, but he is still expected to develop power. Benson also has great speed, and could project as a center fielder. The power he is expected to develop, though, should force him to slide over to a corner outfield position.
Benson’s broken hand was suffered at the expense of a clubhouse wall, which could reveal some makeup problems with the young outfielder. Very few have expressed concerns over this outburst, though, so few conclusions should be drawn.
Hitting just five home runs in 2009, Benson’s supposed power has yet to be seen. Should he develop the ability to hit 10 or 15 home runs per season while maintaining his incredible knack at getting on base, Benson could be a perennial All-Star in the near future.
Ideal scenario: Benson should finish the 2010 season with the Rock Cats, and could be a September call-up as soon as 2012.
Path to the majors: Michael Cuddyer will no longer be with Minnesota in 2012, but Benson will lead a very solid class of outfield prospects, including Revere, Morales and Hicks. Little time will be wasted on Benson for “learn-as-you-go” development, and if he doesn’t perform right away the Twins will likely move to another top outfield prospect.
2009 stats: Did not play Last year’s rank: Not ranked Acquired: Un-drafted acquisition from the Dominican Republic in September 2009
For being perhaps the most-talked about Latin American prospect in baseball history, very little is known about Miguel Angel Sano. These murky waters can be partially blamed on the fact that Jean is just 16 years old. Although big for his age, the right-handed prospect still has room to fill out.
As of now, Jean is listed as a shortstop prospect, but there is little doubt that he will eventually be moved to either the hot corner or the outfield. At 6’3’’ Jean is very projectable and will likely lose most of his already-minimal speed as he matures, which will force him to be moved from the middle of the diamond. Mentally, Jean is reported to have no problems and apparently has a very impressive makeup.
Jean’s defense is nothing spectacular, and he likely won’t be receiving any Gold Gloves in the major leagues, but it is nothing to voice concern over. What made Jean worth the $3.15 million signing bonus he received was his excellent bat speed and abilities at the plate.
Various scouts claim that Jean has great power to all fields, which will only improve as he fills out. Not much more can be said about the 16-year-old infielder from the Dominican Republic, but his status as an elite prospect obviously hinges on his ability to fill out and maintain his power.
Perhaps the most remarkable and noteworthy aspect of this signing, though, is that the Twins’ actually did it. They were rumored to be in the hunt for the uber-prospect from the Dominican Republic, but as soon as the price tag advanced over $3 million, few Twins fans thought Bill Smith would be willing to cough up so much for such an unproven prospect.
Instead, Smith remained in the race that he eventually won. Minnesota didn’t make a huge deal about the signing, but they showed an incredible desire to win, which was great to see. Regardless of how he pans out, the Twins deserve tons of credit for being willing to invest in Jean.
Ideal scenario: Jean will spend at least one full year with the GCL Twins, before steadily advancing through the organization. He could be with the Twins as soon as 2015.
Path to the majors: Like Bromberg, when Jean is ready for the big leagues, room will be made for him. You don’t give a guy $3.15 million and not give him every chance to succeed.
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11. David Bromberg, RHP, 22 years old
2009 stats: 2.70 ERA, 153.1 IP, 148/63 K/BB, 1.226 WHIP at Ft. Myers (A+) Last year’s rank: Not ranked Acquired: 32nd round selection of the Minnesota Twins in the 2005 draft
For a 32nd round selection, David Bromberg has certainly made a name for himself. Drafted out of high school in 2005 as a draft-and-follow, Bromberg entered the world of professional baseball with no small amount of flaws. The Twins, though, known for their top-notch pitching instructors, saw loads of potential in the young right-hander from California.
Bromberg has advanced one level for each of his four years in the Twins' minor league system. Starting out in the Gulf Coast League, Bromberg finished 2009 with the Ft. Myers Miracle, with whom he won the Pitcher of the Year award from the Twins. The 22-year-old has certainly come a long way since his time in Palisades High School, and many improvements have been made on Bromberg's mechanics.
In 2008, Bromberg led the minor leagues with a total of 177 strikeouts in 150 innings. This he managed despite a poor start to the season due to do short-arming his curveball. The curveball is his out-pitch, and, for a strikeout pitcher like Bromberg, directly correlated to his success. Roving pitching coach Rick Knapp re-introduced a drill for Bromberg at about mid-season, which brought his curveball back under control.
Bromberg has four pitches in his arsenal, but rarely throws his 95-mph four-seam fastball. Instead, he throws a 92 mph two-seamer, a circle-change, and his strikeout-pitch, a curveball. Bromberg boasts two flavors of his deadly breaking ball: a biting curve at 83 mph, and a slow arcing curve that usually registers around 76 mph.
The young right-hander admits that he needs more work on his off-speed pitches in order to succeed at higher levels. Bromberg's strikeout rate fell by about two per nine innings this season, and he is walking more than last year, but his WHIP, hits per nine, and home runs per nine are all down. This is reflective of his average BABIP, which indicates that we can expect more seasons like 2009 from Bromberg's right arm.
Ideal scenario: Bromberg continues his methodical advance through the Twins' system, playing in New Britain in 2010 and with the Red Wings the year after that. He could be a September call-up in either 2011 or 2012.
Path to the majors: There are never too many power pitchers in the major leagues. Whenever Bromberg is deemed ready by the Minnesota administration, room will be made for him in the starting rotation.
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The Bloguin Network allows advertisers to promote their products and services to our ever-growing number of visitors. We offer both site-specific ad placements as well as the ability to run a network-wide campaign. If you're interested in working with Bloguin to meet your advertising needs, please contact us.
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The Bloguin Login gives you full access to everything our network has to offer. Your name and password will work for each and every one of our sites. Signing up is simple, and will allow you to post in all our forums, create member blogs, and access other cool features! What are you waiting for? Create an Account! 